Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Therapeutic Continuity among Outpatients with Chronic Cardiovascular Therapies.

The COVID-19 pandemic poses major challenges to healthcare systems. We aimed to investigate the impact of the pandemic on prescription and adherence patterns of chronic cardiovascular therapies (lipid-lowering [LL], oral antidiabetic drugs [AD], and antihypertensives [AH]) using administrative pharmaceutical databases. For each treatment, two cohorts of prevalent cases in 2019 and 2020 were compared. We evaluated the percentage change in dispensed packages and treatment adherence as a proportion of days covered (PDC). For all therapies, an increase was observed during March-April 2020 (LL: +4.52%; AD: +2.72%; AH: +1.09%), with a sharp decrease in May-June 2020 (LL: -8.40%; AD: -12.09%; AH: -10.54%) compared to 2019. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on chronic cardiovascular treatments appears negligible on adherence: 533,414 patients showed high adherence to LL (PDC ≥ 80%) in January-February 2020, and 2.29% became poorly adherent (PDC < 20%) in the following four-month period (vs. 1.98% in 2019). A similar increase was also observed for AH (1.25% with poor adherence in 2020 vs. 0.93% in 2019). For AD, the increase was restrained (1.55% with poor adherence in 2020 vs. 1.37% in 2019). The rush to supply drugs at the beginning of lockdown preserved the continuity of chronic cardiovascular therapies.

Stratification of the risk of developing severe or lethal Covid-19 using a new score from a large Italian population: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a population-based risk stratification model (COVID-19 Vulnerability Score) for predicting severe/fatal clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection, using the multiple source information provided by the healthcare utilisation databases of the Italian National Health Service. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Population-based study using the healthcare utilisation database from five Italian regions. PARTICIPANTS: Beneficiaries of the National Health Service, aged 18-79 years, who had the residentship in the five participating regions. Residents in a nursing home were not included. The model was built from the 7 655 502 residents of Lombardy region. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The score included gender, age and 29 conditions/diseases selected from a list of 61 conditions which independently predicted the primary outcome, that is, severe (intensive care unit admission) or fatal manifestation of COVID-19 experienced during the first epidemic wave (until June 2020). The score performance was validated by applying the model to several validation sets, that is, Lombardy population (second epidemic wave), and the other four Italian regions (entire 2020) for a total of about 15.4 million individuals and 7031 outcomes. Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration (plot of observed vs predicted outcomes). RESULTS: We observed a clear positive trend towards increasing outcome incidence as the score increased. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the COVID-19 Vulnerability Score ranged from 0.85 to 0.88, which compared favourably with the areas of generic scores such as the Charlson Comorbidity Score (0.60). A remarkable performance of the score on the calibration of observed and predicted outcome probability was also observed. CONCLUSIONS: A score based on data used for public health management accurately predicted the occurrence of severe/fatal manifestations of COVID-19. Use of this score may help health decision-makers to more accurately identify high-risk citizens who need early preventive or treatment interventions.